Jonathan Brushes Off Scandal

Abuja - Not many presidents could survive three
multi-billion dollar government oil corruption
scandals and a wave of cold-blooded killings and
kidnappings of civilians bymilitants still holding
hundreds of schoolgirls after six months.
President Goodluck Jonathan has not only
survived, he will seek re-election in February
stronger than ever, after five years in a job no one
expected him to get.
Jonathan's support base within the ruling party is
now unchallenged, a rare feat for the often
fractious People's Democratic Party (PDP), while
the main opposition APC coalition is split
between two contestants for the presidency.
The government announced a ceasefire with Boko
Haram rebels 10 days ago, ahead of talks in
neighbouring Chad to secure the release of more
than 200 girls seized from Chibok village in April
in an abduction that shocked the world.
If the talks are successful it would help the
president's image. But nothing has come of it yet
and violence has since surged, with dozens more
children kidnapped.
Jonathan has defended his overstretched
military's efforts against a Boko Haram
insurgency that has killed thousands. In the case
of the failure to free the schoolgirls, he has said
any rescue attempt would endanger their lives.
Also Read: Every day Jonathan ceases to fire
Meanwhile, apart from the security challenges, his
government also has been best by corruption
allegations.
A parliamentary report detailed a $6.8bn fuel
subsidy fraud. A government investigation
revealed corrupt cut price crude sales to oil
majors that cost the treasury billions. And a
former central banker has reported that between
$10 an $20bn had been diverted by the state oil
firm over 18 months between 2012 and last year.
The government pledged to investigate the first
two cases and denied the third.
Patronage
Last month, South Africa froze two payments
from the Jonathan administration totalling $15m
that it suspected were for illegal arms deals.
Nigeria said the deals were legal.
Yet it is a testament to Nigeria's complex mix of
ethnic rivalry, patronage and intense competition
for centralised oil wealth in Africa's top producer
that Jonathan can brush off these various
scandals and attract a high level of support.
Jonathan, a Christian southerner, was an
accidental president, taking over in 2009 after
President Umaru Yar'adua, a Muslim from the
north, died from illness.
When Jonathan was elected to his own term in
2011, many in the north resented his decision to
run, believing he had torn up an unwritten rule
that power should rotate between mainly Muslim
north and mainly Christian south every two terms.
Former military ruler Muhammadu Buhari, who
lost to Jonathan in 2011, and defected PDP ex-
vice president Atiku Abubakar are vying for the
opposition APC ticket. Both launched bids in the
past month, focusing on security and graft.
Roddy Barclay, senior Africa analyst at Control
Risks, a political risk consultancy, sees two
"principle factors for Jonathan's robust position in
spite of the scandals and failings which have
rocked his government".
"Firstly, the primacy of money and patronage in
determining electoral outcomes in Nigeria," means
an incumbent gets a huge advantage, and second,
"the opposition lacks steadfast unity".
That marks a big change from less than a year
ago. In December it was the PDP that was in
crisis. Thirty seven lawmakers defected to the
APC that month, demolishing the PDP's lower
house majority. Rotimi Amaechi, powerful
governor of the oil hub state of Rivers, also
defected.
The same month, Jonathan's mentor and PDP
Godfather, ex-president Olusegun Obasanjo, wrote
a scathing letter saying it would be "fatally
morally flawed" for Jonathan to seek re-election
in 2015 because of corruption under his rule.
Jonathan called the intervention "unjustifiable and
indecorous".
Nigerian party politics
Ten months on and the APC has failed to
capitalise. It has not agreed on a presidential
candidate and several disillusioned APC figures
have flipped to the PDP, underscoring the fluid
nature of Nigerian party politics.
They include popular two-term ex-governor of
Kano state Ibrahim Shakarau, a Buhari rival, and
former anti-corruption chief Nuhu Ribadu, denying
the APC a strong anti-graft platform, although
Buhari still has strong anti-corruption credentials.
In June, the APC then lost a governorship election
in southwestern Ekiti state to the ruling party.
"The opposition is cannabalising itself. Its top
elites are vying against one another. That's a
glide path for President Jonathan," said Eurasia
Group's Philippe de Pontet.
"Had the APC sustained its momentum from 5-6
months ago ... we'd be in a different world."
On 2 December, the dynamic could shift when the
party picks its candidate. Buhari earned a
reputation for cracking down on corruption during
his time in power in 1983-85, and most Nigerians
agree he did not use the post to enrich himself,
but it is not clear whether he would win votes
from APC supporters in the south.
The emotional conflict felt by Barrister Isaac
Matthew illustrates Jonathan's staying power.
Driven by the plight of the schoolgirls to leave a
court case he was defending to join protesters
demanding more action to rescue them, he says
Jonathan bears ultimate responsibility since
"leaders are supposed to protect their people".
"I'm still probably going to vote for him," he said,
citing Jonathan's concentration of power and
some works Matthew said had greatly improved
the road network.
"The opposition has no credible candidate to
stand against him. Not Atiku [Abubakar] and not
Buhari."
The power sector is also under improvement, but
that may not draw votes since the supply in one
of the world's most electricity-starved countries
has fallen in the short term.
Expectations moderate
Many voters are likely to see the Boko Haram
insurgency, which only affects the remote
northeast apart from occasional bomb attacks in
the capital or other cities, as just one problem in
their large, diverse country.
"Expectations in the electorate are fairly modest
and they are hugely disenfranchised, despite ...
years of civilian rule," said Antony Goldman, head
of Nigeria-focused PM Consulting.
"You don't need to be popular or successful in
conventional terms to win an election in Nigeria,"
he said, although he added that no president had
managed to stay popular after four years in office,
and the APC had yet to present a clear
alternative.
One issue that has not yet played an important
role is Ebola, rampant in some other West African
states. A mixture of luck and impressively
decisive action has meant Africa's most populous
country was able to avoid a potentially
devastating epidemic after a Liberian brought it to
the megacity of Lagos, but the virus could still
come back to plague Nigeria, with unpredictable
political consequences.
Jonathan's assumed decision to run has widened
a divide between elites in Nigeria's south and
north because of a feeling in the north that it is
still their "turn" to rule.
That makes violence likely, especially if the poll is
close. In 2011, more than 800 were killed and 65
000 displaced in three days of violence after
Jonathan beat Buhari in the poll.
If Buhari, now 71, gets the ticket but loses the
election again, his supporters may have less
reason to end the mayhem so quickly if they
sense he has missed his last chance.